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Showing posts from February, 2014

Can Tharman’s Social Budget Save the PAP?

All things after 2011 that the PAP is engaging is for the next General Election, whether it is a social policy or budget. The PAP aims to maintain a 60% target share of votes in the next general election. To the PAP, a 60% share of votes is as comfortable as 75% or even 80% share of votes of the past.They continue their no transparency no open disclosures of reserve, the CPF. They can also continue to ‘fix’ their political opponents as they wish like the past.
This is why they believe in big coefficient in obtaining votes. Will it work?  For this, we may have to know the debate between big coefficient and the new reality (see below video).
Big coefficient means the PAP believes there is a strong (or big) causal relationship in obtaining or maintaining votes when they introduce policies benefitting some groups of voters, their votes can be increased or retained if voters are happy with these policies.  
It is also an evidence-based decision making process.  The PAP has all the data in t…

交接不清真严重 推理结果更可怕

总审计署已经被委任审计阿裕尼后港市镇会的账目,为何只是单单审计2012/2013, 而不是之前行动党管理时的账目呢?难道,如果审计以前的账目,就可能出现王鼎昌做总统时,要求看国家储备那样,需要52个人年来调查吗?



行动党账目交接不清真的是一件很严重的事。就像会计师学会会长所说的一样,审计报告出现这么多disclaimers, 真的是严重。会长很可能是一个短视的人,他只看到disclaimers,而没有看到背后的原因。如果一笔账,只看眼前的问题,而不追究背后原因,这间公司一定有问题。或许,会长和他的Big Three、Big Four就是这样做审计工作。



市镇会交接不清是很严重,但是,如果和国家机构,公积金,外汇储备相比,那可是小巫见大巫了,因此,推理的结果将会让人心惊胆跳,害怕,真相出现后将是恐怖的一幕。



推理是要有根据的,让我们从做账开始。



(让我们先听一首乐曲,清醒一下思路)



Closing balances and Opening balances

除非是一间新公司,不然开始的账目一定不是零头。因此,


Closing balances 上期余额 =  Opening balances 本期余额


如果你在月底收到银行的余额账目,看到上期和本期不一样,你就会向银行询问,银行就有责任向你解释。如果你是小股东,发现两个余额不一样,你也一样可以提问。不然,你可以受到欺骗报警。在独立审计师给阿裕尼后港市镇会的报告中,列在第一位的就是Opening balances不对路#1。因此,工人党在接手时,就要求提供Opening balances的资料,以便可以继续在“Closing balances 上期余额 = Opening balances 本期余额”的情形下,继续做账。


Accounting and Auditing

如果“Closing balances 上期余额不等于Opening balances 本期余额”怎么办,就只能假设这个数目是对,继续做账下去。在报纸上,我们有时可以看到,一些收购项目不成功,就是因为这两个余额不一样,大家对余额的看法不一样。买的一方害怕吃亏,余额如果不是真的实际的余额,买的人就要吃大亏了。



但是,这是市镇管理,一天都不能停止,人民选了你工人党,就是吃亏也要做下去。因为,选举的当天,选举官已经宣布你是中选人,你就是负责管理市镇的人。因此,作为老百姓,…

Paper Generals Fail to Recognize the Role of Military in Indonesia

Our million-dollar and paper general ministers need to know more about the history and role of military in Indonesia. Ministers speaking on the naming issue of an Indonesian navy ship have exposed themselves their ignorance in history and military as a key institution in some countries.
In our ASEAN region, the role of military in Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and of course, Indonesia and the Philippines is or was an important pillar in maintaining social orders and stability (no matter we like it or not, whether they are right or wrong).
In the Muslin world, we also see the traditional role of military in nation-state building of Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq and even the troubled Syria.
The role of military is a unique feature of institution in some countries, including Indonesia. This is especially true when the civil institutions are weak, fail to deliver and build up the nation. The military in this case is the only institution due to its discipline can hold the country together.  Jus…

后李时代的权威挑战和宪法挣扎

李光耀又再一次入院出院了,有人欢喜有人愁,有人害怕有人认为机会来了。无论如何,新加坡将进入一个不同的权威时代,不同诠释宪法的时代,更是一个考验我们道德勇气的时代。
建国以来的强权权威,一党独大的优势,将面对透明度的挑战,公开化的要求,过去的行事作风将面临改变。怎么个改法,行动党要如何顺应民意?人民的要求又是什么?现在只是开始,还在启蒙,还在酝酿中,底牌还未打开。
更加严格的检测政府组织
或许,我们从最近的几条新闻来看看,行动党和民意的误差有多大:
【陈清木接受道歉又公开林瑞生表惊讶】(news.omy.sg) 在行动党看来既然大家私下解决了误会,就可以向以前那样,把不要见光的新闻掩盖起来。因此,林瑞生表惊讶,他是怪陈清木公开消息,还是惊讶自己连这样小的事情都摆不平。为何不能像从前那样喜欢封闭消息就封闭呢?
【Dr Koh heats up air-con debate】(mypaper.sg) 徐宝琨在讨论学校的冷气问题时,认为我们不应该为了追求公平,而导致上面(有钱有能力)的人利益受损。事实上,他的说法是延续李光耀的冷气论,你有能力又负担的起,就尽管开冷气吧!但是,世界已经进入节能时代,资本主义的发展已经大大加大贫富距离,如果我们只是考虑到老子有钱,像从前那样爱怎么花,就怎么花,而不考虑温室效应,而不考虑社会价值,那人类的将来将是一个未知数。除非徐宝琨有钱到能够移民外星。行动党还有多少没有认清政治现实的候选人? 这只是两则比较小的新闻,2011年大选过后,人民对政府的公信力,起了更大的怀疑,对政府的行政组织能力效率也更加不满。地铁,小印度,外汇储备,公积金,医药卫生,组屋等等,人民都有更加严格的要求。这使到过去利用强权建立起来的威信,可信度面对很大的挑战,总之,不论这些挑战是有理还是无理,行动党政府都要小心处理,处理的不好,民意支持度就会再次下降。
事实上,马炎成已经承认行动党只得60分,而一个只有60分的党,却要霸占90%以上的国会议席,怎么可能不面对更加严格的挑战呢!所以,要维持过去那样的绝对国会优势,政府的绝对威权,国家组织的威信,将是一个很大的挑战,而挑战也变得防不胜防了。你如何确保地铁不停车,如何确保没有罢工,没有暴动,失业不增加,贪污舞弊不发生。
不论将来谁做政府,新加坡如果要继续前进就只有更加的透明,更为公开,把事实说清楚,才能赢得人民的信任,重新获得国家组织机构应有…

NEA vs. AHPETC: Political Adventure or Political Suicide

From assembly without permit to organisation trade fair without licence, the PAP government once again wants to show its establishment might. It even wants to right and guide the political development here: if the opposition town council is in the wrong side of the law, the institutions have the right to correct it and bring it to the court. Will this work in the new political norm with a better informed voters?
For the recent NEA vs. AHPETC#1, the PAP is taking a political risk that there are no gains but loses. In the 'assembly without permit' era, it had an upper hand as the media was under PAP control and people have few access to alternative news and views. Furthermore, most people listen to the PAP side of the story and were more willing to give the 'benefit of doubts' to them in exchange for economic prosperity. Unfortunately, this 'give and take' model has gone. Voters are more calculative now and good jobs are not easy to get.
However, in the era o…