Wednesday, 29 July 2015

PAP Election Strategy and the Asian Thought Behind Voters


2015 PAP Strategy 战略 1

PAP has another set of calculation

Although my prediction of 13 single parliament seats and a total of 89 seats is right, however, my guessing of the number of group representative constituencies is wrong.

I was misled by the instruction PM Lee gave to the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee. PM Lee wants an average size of GRC < 5. I thought EBRC could understand his intention and predicted there were 3 5-member, 14 4-member and 3 3-member GRCs. This will give an average GRC size of 4.

42 当选区划分遇上地方效应,傑利蠑螈如何进行?   Google Docs.png
http://pijitailai.blogspot.sg/2015/07/blog-post_21.html?spref=fb

However, it looks like both PM Lee and EBRC are less confidence for the PAP to win the election. They retain the 2 6-member super constituencies, reduce 5-member constituencies to 6  and increase 4-member constituencies to 8.

In the new election map, if we take 4*8=32, the 4-member GRCs is only 42% (32/76) of the total GRCs. It means the average size of GRCs is > 5. PM Lee’s instruction of ‘smaller than 5’ can only be met when we add in the 13 single seats into calculation. {(13+32)/89=50.56%}

Election is a mathematical game.  It is talking about number, especially for the first-past-the post system. The winners take all.  Gerrymandering as I explained is an integer optimization problem.  The PAP has all the statistics and they can quite accurately make the election prediction using technology.

EBRC has kept their promised and beautifully delivered their white paper of 89-seat parliament in GE2015, following closely all the instructions given by PM Lee: average GRC size < 5 and at least 12 single seats.  

How can we read their minds behind all these magic numbers? How can we break their ideal optimization calculation?

  • By retaining the 2 6-member GRCs, it is a ‘sure win’ strategy.
  • By reducing the number of 5-member GRCs, it is a ‘cut loss’ strategy.
  • By increasing 4-member GRCs and 1 more single seat, it is a ‘competition within oppositions’ strategy.

In this election, the PAP is in the defensive and they want to remain in power for many more years. EBRC is only the first step. From now on till polling day, their super-computer and election consultants are ready and on stand-by for further detailed analysis of the outcome.

They want to prevent any opposition breakthrough and hopefully continue to enjoy two-thirds majority.   

The mood of electors is the only factor that can break the PAP’s monopoly in parliament.  

This factor will be affected by historical reasons (CPF, population, transport, education, democracy, transparency etc) and ad-hoc effects (rally, social media, institutions (MRT) breakdown, bad news (corruptions), etc) .

Singapore is an Asian society and in term of democracy, we are far behind other developed Asian countries like India, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan etc. Singapore will follow the trend sooner and later.

Asian thought? Beyond god?

So, how to read the mood of Singaporeans?

28Jul2015 onLHL   TODAYonline.png

Yesterday’s Today newspaper has an interesting opinion piece on PM Lee’s comment on godless society.
Lee seems to suggest a no religion society will invite communism.

Since 75% of Singaporeans are Chinese, I would like to discuss this from another perspective. If Lee is referring to China and Chinese communism, I think he got his fact wrong. This worries me as China is the next superpower and Lee is promoting a wrong understanding of China. How can Singaporeans do successful businesses there?

Chinese thinking is very complex and it is always linked to the past (language, history, culture, philosophy).  The blue plan of today’s China infrastructure development is just an ‘update’ of Sun Yat-sen Grand Development Plan in the early 1900s. Chinese history clearly shows many big project developments in different dynasties.  

What has this got to do with Singapore?

Singaporean Chinese, even though less 'Chinese-ness', still have some Chinese thinking, especially older Chinese. For this election, statistics show there are slightly more post-1965 voters than older generation voters. However, the Chinese thinking remains here. LKY tried very hard to change it but even a Englsih-speaking Singapore Chinese still maintain some Chinese thinking.

PM Lee commented on godless society. I wonder what is his religion? In Chinese history, Chinese are more philosophical rather than religious. Sometimes, they can be very practical, for example, the many air travel incidents and behaviours of Chinese tourists. This leads to the question of ‘LKY dividend’. Respect of LKY and supporting PAP and PM Lee can be two different things.

When Singapore jumps from third world to first world, the Chinese thinking or Asian thinking (Indian and Malay Singaporeans may have the same experience too) remains. It is a complicated and complex process, different people experience different degree of change. Some only want to buy clothing in London, many still prefer to shop in Johor. The income inequality has made more JB shoppers than London shoppers, so do the voters.

The PAP has failed to understand the different degree of change.  Their assumed First World status is just a broken promise, applicable to minority Singaporeans. Since PM Lee took over the prime minister, he has got it wrong in every election.  Just like he claims he understands China but fails to understand Chinese history.

There are historical reason why Singaporeans vote for the oppositions. Aljunied voters are just taking the lead, others will follow as they too see the real colors of the PAP.

If you are interested to know more about naturalism and super naturalism in China, here is a reference video:  




 

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