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Even PAP Vote Share reduces to 55%, the Oppositions could still hold 7 seats.

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 20 --  state machinery

Even if the oppositions is managed to gain 45% of the total votes in GE2015, it does not mean a big win. Instead it can still be a big loss, a big disappointment.

If you present it in a spreadsheet, even the Workers’ Party improves its vote share to 51% (i.e. WP 51%, PAP 49% in all WP contested seats), there is still no breakthrough for WP. What a big disappointment!

The following table provides the possible picture of the ‘big disappointment’:



You can see the full spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqLUI2z8sJykCG0EXNRiOIUbpVVNZ4DOC1H9mP5R-8A/pubhtml https://www.scribd.com/doc/277075659/GE2015-Prediction-Uneven-Distribution GE2015 prediction

Power yourself with the prediction You can even treat the spreadsheet as a political game that you can adjust the percentages for each constituency that opposition parties will obtain.  If you think Party A should get more votes, you just increase the percentage and see the overall result…

僵硬、死板的接班人制度把行动党引向死胡同

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 20 --  虚伪的接班人制度



2015年的新加坡大选,独立后出生的选民将超过选民总数的一半以上。面对这种新的局面,行动党依然虚伪的推出接班人制度做号召,这能吸引年轻选民的共鸣吗?
行动党昨天由总理李显龙亲自宣布这次大选的竞选宣言和主题:你我同心,为国为民。


警方还特意为这场行动党宣言的造势大会而封路。行动党仍然还要摆出强势的姿态。在大选的紧要关头,依然故我,自我的感觉真好。 选民看在眼里,会是怎么一种感觉?大家心里都有一把尺,行动党知道吗?

每一次大选,行动党都要提出接班人的问题。从第一代到现在进入第四代了。一代比一代进步吗?提出接班人的问题无非就是要继续维持政权,继续领高薪,而不是从人民的利益出发。选民感觉这是一个与他们脱节的政党,不是以新加坡人出发,更加不是从年轻人的立场看问题。
反观工人党,我们就看出这个大不同。工人党这次的竞选宣言和口号:掌握民权,把握将来。都是交给年轻的党员,独立后的出生年轻一代去进行、筹划。一位可爱的记者还问,这是不是表示工人党,不重视这次的竞选宣言。
非也,目的真好相反。
工人党就是要和年轻人站在一起,现在连小孩子,都早熟到喜欢工人党,而把行动党当成一个目标。这是一位小学生的画作。可惜,这幅画结果只得了一个C。

行动党机械式接班人制度
搞了50多年,行动党还是脱离不了这个所谓的接班人制度。这个僵硬,死板,又机械式的制度,将令行动党走入一个死胡同。
你想一想,行动党会让孙学玲,陈惠玲,钟丽慧,陈有明,陈佩玲加入2015年大选宣言的工作吗?他们只有听的份。
就算是第四代接班人里的候选人,如前三军总长黄志明,前高级公务员徐芳达,前高级警官杨益财等人,行动党会放心让他们参与行动党2015竞选宣言的工作和口号的设计吗?
答案很明显,在行动党机械式的制度下,新的候选人,只是旗子,重要的候选人,还要放在安全的集选区里,这就造成了新加坡选举制度的怪现象:老兵前线打战,新兵后面享受。当然,新兵也不可能参与选战的策划,设计,更加谈不上参与宣言思考和筹划。更更加不可能出席记者会,为行动党宣读竞选宣言和大喊口号。

PAP is crying for “With You, For You, For Singapore”, do you understand why?

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 19 -- strategy of crying

In 1965, Lee Kuan Yew cried when Singapore gained independence. But his deputy, Dr. Toh Chin Chye said he did not know why.

http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2015/03/toh-chin-chye-he-was-crying-i-dont-understand-him-at-all/

The People’s Action Party practiced crying 50 years ago. It just continues to do so even many Singaporeans, especially young voters who are born after 1965, do not know the real reason of  the 1965 crying.

Crying seems to be a habit whenever the PAP faces a crisis. No wonder we see so many PAP members of parliament and ministers are crying these days.






From Lim Boon Heng (again), Ong Teng Koon, Lee Bee Wah, Lim Swee Say to even Lee Hsien Loong, more and more are crying. Even DPM Tharman got emotional yesterday when he announced the PAP Aljunied GRC team.

Do you know what are they crying for? Perhaps, like Dr Toh Chin Chye, there is no answer and no reason for crying.

One possible answer can be like 1965, the PAP is facing an un…

快来看看行动党的鸡肋候选人?

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 18 -- 鸡肋战略

和2011年大选相比,行动党这次在工人党选区的战略,可以用鸡肋战略来形容。《三国演义》形容曹操的困境,应该还是不应该退兵北归,就用了鸡肋这个军中的暗语。很多人不明白暗语的意思;只有杨修知道,他把这个暗语的意思说破了。

食之无味,弃之可惜。

不过,杨修这个才子,下场很可怜,被曹操杀了。或许,行动党内部,已经有人知道了这个秘密暗语,有些议员是‘食之无味,弃之可惜’,而把他们拿到工人党的战区却是最好的废物利用,再循环。

出战工人党战区的鸡肋有几个?

杨木光当然是第一个,在宏茂桥集选区原本就要退出政治,现在,放在阿裕尼集选区,还美言,勇敢为行动党牺牲。

张有福是第二个。上一回险胜工人党的余振忠388票。这次假借收复失地为名,更加上要为榜鹅东选民请命,向国家发展部讨回津贴金,又是一个英雄人物。如果杨木光是勇敢,那他就是救命英雄,因为,他要拿津贴给选民。

在马林百列集选区,走了一个张有福,当然要有一个代替者。行动党特意把唐振辉从被灭掉的集选区调过来。这似乎意味着他的鸡肋命运。从一个相对安全的选区,奔向一个危险区,又是一个不熟悉的选区,这样的候选人,不是鸡肋是什么?

既然马林百列集选区有鸡肋行动党候选人,当然会有大头鸡肋。他们一个是前总理吴作栋和另一个是部长陈川仁。吴作栋这块鸡肋,是总理要求他留任。总理以为可以凭着吴作栋过去的名气,在马林百列几十年,应该可以协助陈川仁,守住这个集选区。陈川仁作为第四代行动党传人,很可能要像马谡一样失守马林百列集选区。

行动党虽然不舍得陈川仁,但是,谁叫他的运气不好,选区就在阿裕尼集选区的影响范围,来挑战的是被吴作栋认为比团结党强,而又骄傲的工人党。从吴作栋的各种反应,与其说是高调批评工人党,不如说是心虚。他心里有数,他真的如他本身说的政绩辉煌吗?这回是选民给予他正面回答的时候了。

行动党的另一个鸡肋团队就是东海岸集选区的四人团队。林瑞生原本从职工总会退下来,早就应该退休。但是,一个集选区没有部长领军,实在说不过去。一个阿裕尼集选区没有部长领军,已经很难看,再来一个,行动党真的很没有面子。既然是一个要退休的部长,让他作为鸡肋在东海岸集选区领军,不是正好吗?如果运气好,可以继续担任部长,不中选也不要紧。同时,他也不是第四代接班人,这种鸡肋当然可以被牺牲掉。

行动党还有一个鸡肋候选人。她就是刚刚完生孩子的陈…

Think twice before voting for a superstitious PAP

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 17 -- strategy of superstition



If you read the Chinese media, you will notice how superstitious the PAP can be. We are talking about empower our future. Do you trust the PAP for your future? - A party that can only promise its delivery based on superstition and luck.  GE2015 is the time we seek an alternative to empower ourselves rather than enriching the PAP.
A strong mandate to the PAP will paint a wrong future for Singapore. And most importantly, it is against the 'feng shui' turning.


Let’s look at the PAP’s superstition in three areas:

The making of the PAP superstition The turning ‘feng shui’ Normality and certainty

The making of the PAP superstition

Many comments about the fear factor of 9/11 for selecting September, 11 as polling day. However, in Chinese lunar calendar, we should look at the ‘opening day’ and ‘closing day’ of an event. In short,
The nomination day is a foundation day (定江山). #1
It is good to launch a campaign and the fate is already fitted o…

选择性抹黑和骄傲的工人党。

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 16 -- 抹黑



行动党公开的通过选举局,提醒政党不要进行负面的选战。但是,行动党从来没有提醒自己,不要抹黑反对党,尤其是选择性的抹黑反对党。
最新的一则抹黑,就是要为行动党收复失地榜鹅东单选区的张有福发出的。他说工人党市镇会面对亏损。我们想一想,工人党市镇会不是企业,也没有像行动党的市镇会那样投资危险的债券,亏损从何说起?亏损的源头就是政府不发津贴给工人党市镇会。

市镇会亏损 为居民不值 晚报 8月25日

原来他说的是财政出现赤字。他还为榜鹅东的选民不值。绕了一个大圈,原来他说的是政府的津贴。政府的津贴一来,赤字就会变黑。这不是欺骗选民的手法吗?他明明知道,所谓的赤字,亏损是和政府津贴挂钩的。

国家发展部如果把7百多万元的津贴拨给工人党市镇会,赤字就会变成黑字,就是这么简单。张有福为了抹黑,为了迷惑选民,就转了一个圈,说他将为民请命,把津贴争取回来。我已经在上一篇博文做了相同的解释了,现在附上有关的说明: 张有福说的为民请命,说穿了,就是认为行动党会继续做政府,只要人民选择行动党,钱和津贴就自然而然的来了。这种做法,就像把赈灾的钱收起来,把津贴收起来,威胁选民投行动党一票。任何做法,都有它的反面,行动党很幼稚的认为,选民会被迷惑,会被吓倒。它根本没有想到,选民会更加不满行动党的所作所为。

但是,行动党并不是对每个反对党都进行抹黑工作的。行动党所谓抹黑策略,只是针对具有威胁性的反对党。

*** 吴作栋虽然不像张有福那样,公开的进行抹黑。作为一个前总理,他有一定的高度。他不方便抹黑,只能说工人党骄傲。对于他来说,工人党的傲气可以和他的40年政绩,对马林百列选区的贡献相比吗?他认为工人党到马林百列,其实是不自量力,选民会这么轻易相信工人党的‘掌握民权,把握未来’吗?他的意思是工人党虽然比团结党来得强,他们可以来试一试,但是要取得突破,免谈。

吴作栋其实是一个很大的负资产,他自我感觉良好,还拿出政绩来跟人比。新加坡走到今天这个地步,2011年大选的问题无法解决,拖到2015年,人口,组屋,就业,低薪工友,等等问题,还是无法解决。这些难道跟他没有关系吗?

下面这一篇博文,我有比较多的解释: Chok Tong is a liability, not an asset. Plus the Aljunied Effect in Marine Parade.h…

Free Lunch Vs. Paid Dinner - a battle of hearts

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 15 -- strategy of free lunch



The PAP is throwing away free lunches like nobody money in election time.  They not only provide free lunches. In addition, they also give more financial incentives, for example, HDB grants of $20,000, or even up to $80,000 if residents are qualified. For young children, they also increase the baby bonuses. This is one of the free lunch events where you see potential PAP candidates serving lunch to residents.   yahoo.sg

The PAP wants to talk about minds and hearts in this election. They strongly think free lunches and goodies can catch the minds and hearts of voters. They have been doing it non-stop in the past 50 years. However, with the maturity of voters, the strategy of free lunch faces a dilemma that generates diminishing return. The more the PAP invests in free lunch activities, the less return they receive. As a result, minds and hearts are no more with the PAP.

In the opposite side, the PAP is wondering why people are willing to pa…